A larger economy and a larger paycheck are different outcomes. Anthropic’s economic scenario model explores how AI could change output, jobs and income distribution. Use it to compare assumptions, not as a forecast of your salary.
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Open Anthropic’s scenario explorer
Read Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI, the full technical report
The September 2026 working paper compares modest, substantial and extreme AI-change scenarios. The authors do not assign probabilities to them. Different assumptions about capabilities, adoption and task automation produce different economic paths.
Read the figures with the right baseline
| 2030 scenario | GDP above the no-AI baseline | Labor share of total income |
|---|---|---|
| Modest | 1.6% | 59.4% |
| Substantial | 8.3% | 56.1% |
| Extreme | 32.4% | 45.2% |
The GDP column compares each scenario with the same 2030 economy without AI. It is not growth from today. The labor-share column is workers’ portion of total income, not a wage-cut percentage. A smaller share of a larger total need not mean every worker receives less.
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Unlocks: What the wage result actually says · Make a task map for your own work · Compare evidence before changing your plans
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